Ukraine crisis 2014

The Parliament of Crimea asked Moscow to allow the region to accede to Russia and move forwards the date of a referendum on the region’s status from March 30 to March 16, 2014. In other words, Crimean Parliament requested to Moscow to make Crimea the part of Russia.

• The authorities in Crimea voted to accelerate secession from Ukraine, unanimously backing a law that declared the territory to be part of the Russian Federation.
• Voters in Crimea had to choose between two options: Stay in Ukraine or join Russia. (Previously, the Parliament planned to seek greater autonomy for Crimea within Ukraine).
• Ukraine’s interim prime minister opposed the referendum of Crimean parliament to join Russia. (The current Crimean constitution came into effect in 1999 and Article 135 of the Ukrainian constitution provides that the Crimean Constitution must be approved by the Ukrainian parliament).
• Russian President Mr. Vladimir Putin stated that Russia had no plans to annex Crimea.

Note: Crimea is an autonomous republic in the south-eastern region of Ukraine and has its own constitution. Crimea’s people are 58 % ethnic Russians, 24% Ukrainians, and 12 % Tatars, descendants of the Turkic people that ruled the peninsula until the Russian Tsars annexed it in 1783. (Capital: Simferopol).

What is the cause of public protest against the President Viktor Yanukovych?

• The immediate cause of anti-government protests started over President Mr. Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to abandon a deal with the European Union in favour of aid and natural gas agreements with Russia.
• Causes of protest: Opposition to the Euromaidan movement, Opposition to the Yatsenyuk Government and the Verkhovna Rada’s vote to repeal language law that protected minority languages.
• Effect of Protest: The anti-government protests led to the downfall of the government of President Viktor Yanukovych and set the new government.
• In brief, the 2014 Ukrainian revolution was anti-Yanukovych who is pro-Russia. Those who protested wanted close Ukraine-EU relations and not Ukraine-Russia partnership.

USA’s move on Ukraine crisis:- The U.S. has suspended military engagement with Russia and opined to expel Russia from G-8 but Germany didn’t favour the expulsion. Western leaders have shown consensus on suspending theG8 summit to be held at Sochi this year, if Russia doesn’t stop its interference.

What the Ukraine government did to resolve Ukraine crisis?

In order to resolve the political crisis in Ukraine, Ukraine Prime Minister Mr. Mykola Azarov resigned and the deputy Prime Minister Mr. Serhiy Arbuzov became the acting Prime minister of Ukraine.

• To ease the two month long protest, the parliament repealed a set of anti-protest laws and a mass amnesty was granted to all the demonstrators in the streets, even the ones who have seized government buildings by force.
• In the crisis talks between the President and opposition leaders, it was agreed that Parliament would hold a vote of no-confidence in the government, and to work towards potentially reinstating a constitution that boosted parliamentary powers and curtailed those of the President.

About Ukraine

• Capital: Kiev.
• Currency: Ukrainian hryvnia.
• Prime minister: Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
• National anthem: Shche ne vmerla Ukraina.
• After its independence in 1991 from the former Soviet Union, Ukraine has swung between its desire for integration into the European Union and keeping friendly ties with Russia that continues to be its largest single trading partner that it depends on for cheap energy resources.
• In 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on the division of the Black Sea Fleet, with 81 % going to Russia along with Sevastopol and other military installations in the Crimea. In return, Moscow compensated Kiev with a large sum of money as well as writing off a large amount of Ukrainian debt. Russia also pays Ukraine an annual fee. 

Note: Euromaidan – Protest which attracted around 300,000 people on Kiev’s Independence Square, known as the Maidan, the largest since the 2004 Orange Revolution. Activists seized Kiev City Hall.

Impact of Ukraine Crisis on India

The ongoing political crisis in Ukraine will effect India due to following reasons:

Immediate impact on India: The military stand-off situation of India would go worsen because Ukrainian military facility provides engines for military helicopters of Russian origin (that account for a quarter of the world’s medium, medium-heavy and heavy lift helicopters) and India has contracts with many sourcing naval engines, from where India gets its entire fleet of medium military transport aircraft modernized.

Business and economic factors- The conflict between Russia and Ukraine

• Would weaker rupee against dollars that will be negative for stocks and for the Indian economy.
• International oil and gas prices would go up that will adversely effect India, as India will have to spend more dollars to buy Brent as it is dependent on imports for its energy needs. This will pressure the rupee and may lead to a rise in the current account deficit.
• The FDI inflow into India may be affected adversely. 

Strategic reasons- If the military situation in Ukraine go worse than the relations between the US and Russia would be deteriorate, then at that situation India will be under pressure to take a clear position, as China has taken a clear position and supported Russia. 

Note:  Russia is a key friend of India and has helped repeatedly at the crucial time viz. Because of Russia’s pro-active help, India won the 1971 war against Pakistan and liberated Bangladesh, etc.