The senior citizen
Source: By Jaydev Jana: The Statesman
What an elder sees sitting; the young cannot see standing. ~ Gaustave Flaubert
The world’s population is greying rapidly. In place of the population explosion, a new set of demographic trends ~ each historically unprecedented in its own right ~ is set to recast the world’s population profile in the current century. The most important trend is that the world’s population is aging, a process that will be rapid for many countries by 2050. Apart from the rich nations, several developing countries have sub-replacement fertility rates. As of 2010, around 48 per cent of the world’s population lived in countries with sub-replacement fertility rates. The sharp drop in fertility rates, together with greater longevity, has affected the age profile of the people. It is unprecedented and enduring and without parallel in human history, and has profound implications for many facets of human life.
In 2012, the number of older persons was around 810 million ~ 11.5 per cent of the total global population. The report of the United Nations Population Fund has projected that by 2050 the world’s elderly will number around two billion. For the first time, there will be older people than children under 15. This implies that while at present every ninth person in the world is above 60; their number will increase to one in five by 2050.
The revolution in human longevity is leading to dramatic adjustments throughout the world. Anthropologists believe that the average human lifespan for most of the last 200,000 years was probably less than thirty years. After the agricultural revolution and rapid urbanisation, the lifespan started moving upwards, but not until the middle of the 19th century when the average lifespan reached forty. However, in the last 150 years the average lifespan worldwide has climbed to 69 and in most of the developed countries it is now in the late seventies, thanks to the significant role of education, a dramatic improvement of sanitation, nutrition, literacy, and the presentation of information online about healthcare and well-being. Astonishingly enough, more than half of the babies born in developed countries after the year 2000 are projected to live past the age of 100. In the USA, more than half of the babies born in 2007 will cross 104 years of age.
Japan is the only country with more than 30 per cent of the population aged 60 or above. By 2050, there will be as many as 64 countries where older people make up more than 30 per cent of the population and nearly 80 per cent of the world’s older persons will live in developing countries ~ with China and India contributing to over one-third that number. According to estimates released by the UNFPA, India will be home to one out of every six of the world’s older persons, and only China will then have a larger number of elderly people.
Today, more than half of India’s population is under the age of 25, with more than 65 per cent of the population under 35. India, being the second populous country in the world, can boast of its young population, and its unique demographic trend makes it the world’s youngest country with 64 per cent of its population in the working age group till 2020. Here too, the population of senior citizens is growing fast and elderly India is set to explode. The percentage of the population above 65 will double by 2050. Of course, the percentage of the elderly will still be half of that in China. From the emerging trend, it appears that the India’s dependency ratio ~ the burden of non-working people to be borne by the working population ~ is lower than the rest of the world but its successive generations will still have to carry a bigger burden.
The emergent demographic reality ~ the larger ratio of older people ~ illustrates how changes in societies can be driven not only by the absolute size of the population but also by changes in the distribution in different age groups. When a baby-boom generation joins the workforce, societies experience enormous productivity gains. But years later, when the same generation ages, they are sometimes less able to adapt to new technology and new demands for flexibility in the workforce. Thus the greying population can lead to a decline in the efficiency of the workforce. If a subsequent decline in fertility results in smaller generations entering the workforce to replace them, the same cohorts that clamoured for revolutionary change in their youth start shrilling for bigger pension cheques and better healthcare in their old age.
Apart from a drastic fall in the labour force, the greying population is a major cause of concern as countries will have to incur larger age-related expenditures, chiefly in the form of higher outlays on healthcare and pension support. It was estimated that the average cost of providing long-term care for the aged will increase by over 1.3 per cent of GDP in the advanced economies in addition to the increased budgetary support needed for pension schemes. Some of the projections made of the funds necessary to support these schemes are truly mind-boggling ~ as high as 15.8 per cent of GDP in Italy by 2032, and 16 per cent of GDP in France by 2040. Presently, a well-developed social security system is one of the most attractive features of all advanced economies. Human society will fail the fundamental test of civilisation if there is no decent provision for the old.
India’s social security system for senior citizens is woefully inadequate compared to other Third World economies whose per capita incomes may not be higher. The Pension Parishad has calculated that to provide monthly pension at the rate of Rs. 2,000 per dependent senior citizen, the total amount required at present will be around 2 per cent of GDP. Over time, the pressure on public finances for ensuring social security for senior citizens in the developing countries, including India will be prohibitive. The current system is leaving many elderly citizens frail and disabled.
“As far as old people are concerned this society is not only guilty but downright criminal. Sheltering behind the myths of expansion and affluence, it treats the old as outcasts,” to quote Simone de Beauvoir’s Old Age. Human society will fail the fundamental test of civilisation if there is no decent provision for the old. While longevity entails improvement in the human condition, the drop in life expectancy portends a diminution of human well-being, capabilities and choices. A balance must be struck between longevity and mortality for the world to be a better place to live in.
What an elder sees sitting; the young cannot see standing. ~ Gaustave Flaubert
The world’s population is greying rapidly. In place of the population explosion, a new set of demographic trends ~ each historically unprecedented in its own right ~ is set to recast the world’s population profile in the current century. The most important trend is that the world’s population is aging, a process that will be rapid for many countries by 2050. Apart from the rich nations, several developing countries have sub-replacement fertility rates. As of 2010, around 48 per cent of the world’s population lived in countries with sub-replacement fertility rates. The sharp drop in fertility rates, together with greater longevity, has affected the age profile of the people. It is unprecedented and enduring and without parallel in human history, and has profound implications for many facets of human life.
In 2012, the number of older persons was around 810 million ~ 11.5 per cent of the total global population. The report of the United Nations Population Fund has projected that by 2050 the world’s elderly will number around two billion. For the first time, there will be older people than children under 15. This implies that while at present every ninth person in the world is above 60; their number will increase to one in five by 2050.
The revolution in human longevity is leading to dramatic adjustments throughout the world. Anthropologists believe that the average human lifespan for most of the last 200,000 years was probably less than thirty years. After the agricultural revolution and rapid urbanisation, the lifespan started moving upwards, but not until the middle of the 19th century when the average lifespan reached forty. However, in the last 150 years the average lifespan worldwide has climbed to 69 and in most of the developed countries it is now in the late seventies, thanks to the significant role of education, a dramatic improvement of sanitation, nutrition, literacy, and the presentation of information online about healthcare and well-being. Astonishingly enough, more than half of the babies born in developed countries after the year 2000 are projected to live past the age of 100. In the USA, more than half of the babies born in 2007 will cross 104 years of age.
Japan is the only country with more than 30 per cent of the population aged 60 or above. By 2050, there will be as many as 64 countries where older people make up more than 30 per cent of the population and nearly 80 per cent of the world’s older persons will live in developing countries ~ with China and India contributing to over one-third that number. According to estimates released by the UNFPA, India will be home to one out of every six of the world’s older persons, and only China will then have a larger number of elderly people.
Today, more than half of India’s population is under the age of 25, with more than 65 per cent of the population under 35. India, being the second populous country in the world, can boast of its young population, and its unique demographic trend makes it the world’s youngest country with 64 per cent of its population in the working age group till 2020. Here too, the population of senior citizens is growing fast and elderly India is set to explode. The percentage of the population above 65 will double by 2050. Of course, the percentage of the elderly will still be half of that in China. From the emerging trend, it appears that the India’s dependency ratio ~ the burden of non-working people to be borne by the working population ~ is lower than the rest of the world but its successive generations will still have to carry a bigger burden.
The emergent demographic reality ~ the larger ratio of older people ~ illustrates how changes in societies can be driven not only by the absolute size of the population but also by changes in the distribution in different age groups. When a baby-boom generation joins the workforce, societies experience enormous productivity gains. But years later, when the same generation ages, they are sometimes less able to adapt to new technology and new demands for flexibility in the workforce. Thus the greying population can lead to a decline in the efficiency of the workforce. If a subsequent decline in fertility results in smaller generations entering the workforce to replace them, the same cohorts that clamoured for revolutionary change in their youth start shrilling for bigger pension cheques and better healthcare in their old age.
Apart from a drastic fall in the labour force, the greying population is a major cause of concern as countries will have to incur larger age-related expenditures, chiefly in the form of higher outlays on healthcare and pension support. It was estimated that the average cost of providing long-term care for the aged will increase by over 1.3 per cent of GDP in the advanced economies in addition to the increased budgetary support needed for pension schemes. Some of the projections made of the funds necessary to support these schemes are truly mind-boggling ~ as high as 15.8 per cent of GDP in Italy by 2032, and 16 per cent of GDP in France by 2040. Presently, a well-developed social security system is one of the most attractive features of all advanced economies. Human society will fail the fundamental test of civilisation if there is no decent provision for the old.
India’s social security system for senior citizens is woefully inadequate compared to other Third World economies whose per capita incomes may not be higher. The Pension Parishad has calculated that to provide monthly pension at the rate of Rs. 2,000 per dependent senior citizen, the total amount required at present will be around 2 per cent of GDP. Over time, the pressure on public finances for ensuring social security for senior citizens in the developing countries, including India will be prohibitive. The current system is leaving many elderly citizens frail and disabled.
“As far as old people are concerned this society is not only guilty but downright criminal. Sheltering behind the myths of expansion and affluence, it treats the old as outcasts,” to quote Simone de Beauvoir’s Old Age. Human society will fail the fundamental test of civilisation if there is no decent provision for the old. While longevity entails improvement in the human condition, the drop in life expectancy portends a diminution of human well-being, capabilities and choices. A balance must be struck between longevity and mortality for the world to be a better place to live in.
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