GenNext to the fore~II
Source: By Barun Kumar Basu: The Statesman
A rising tide of resentment against rulers is inevitable. There are 39 million families (maybe 80-120 million voters) in rural and urban India, living in homes with thatched/grass roof; 22.1 per cent of rural households in 2011 had to carry water from sources far away from their homes; 51.9 per cent of the rural population depend on unfiltered water, 28 per cent have no kitchens inside their homes and 45 million households ~ 24 per cent of the of population overall ~ cannot afford less labour-intensive fuel such as LPG and have to make do with crop residue. Women voters have weathered the storm since 1947.
Then there are the minority communities, particularly Muslims, who number 138 million, i.e. about 9 per cent of the country’s total population of whom about 30 million or about a fourth are concentrated in Uttar Pradesh while another 14 million live in Bihar. In contrast, about 4.50 million Muslims populate Gujarat. Muslims would account for a tidy 85-90 million votes.
To that can be added the increasing number of Scheduled Caste graduates (2.31 million) in their 167 million population and a relatively minuscule 3.05 million illiterate population (that includes children below 7), who may account for another 100-105 million votes. Then there are 84.32 million Scheduled Tribes who boast of only 2 million young voters with educational qualifications of high school and above.
They too would account for about 45-50 million votes. Between them, these three subaltern communities alone may account for 230-245 million votes or a third of the total available votes and perhaps 85-90 Lok Sabha seats. Historically, the leadership of these communities has vested in opportunistic leaders who have left these class groups high and dry in the last six decades. This has opened the path for alternative leaders such as Narendra Modi.
The intriguing silence of the regional parties proves that they will yet again forsake their traditional constituencies, many of them subaltern, and opportunistically team up with the winner who may be the Prime Minister if his party crosses the 180-190 Lok Sabha seats-marks. Why give such fissiparous elements the chance to play the role of king-makers when voters are willing to listen to reason and good sense and elect a single party without suffering their circus-like antics that may even lead to Mr Modi’s eclipse. Failure to avail of this opportunity may well turn the clock back to the medieval era as far as the subalterns are concerned.
The Census 2011 data is not available on the Internet. Polemics over reservations apart, the vast majority of these people still work in the fields as marginal farmers and unskilled labourers. Yet a percolation or trickle-down effect from the young brigade is apparent from the resentment over certain public events and the first attempts at redefining their role in polity.
The progressive outlook of AMU’s last Vice-Chancellor had cost him his job, but he earned the respect of students. Muslim clerics are also doing their bit to arouse awareness of the need to vote in the interest of development. In the assembly elections of 2013, the SCs and STs, who dominate a vast swathe of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, voted on an unprecedented scale. If this trend continues, every block of 2 million votes of their 230-245 million votes may determine as many as 115-123 Lok Sabha seats. To this can be added the role of the media and Internet and the improved connectivity in large parts of the country.
Despite the major socio-economic and demographic changes, the campaign for Election 2014 is far from commensurate with the tide of rising expectations; on the contrary, it is utterly oblivious to the consequences of terminal blindness. Every word uttered during this campaign reflects Schattschneider’s prophetic words: “The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent.” Even as the demands of voters are contemporary, the response of the prime ministers in the wings is antediluvian. Our politicians do not realise that their base of power has shifted dramatically and the upper middle crust matters little in Election 2014.
Regretfully, the campaigns are marked by quasi-gutter talk, rebuke, insult, innuendo, even mimicry. Manifestos don’t count. Politician superstars swear by the ‘national interest’. Overall, there is an utter contempt for the voter. There is no national vision, no national pride, and no national and international plan of action. Gujarat is not the ideal development model. Mr Modi is yet to tell voters why they should vote for him.
The economy has all but crashed. The manufacturing sector and exports are languishing. Onions are more expensive than a litre of petrol. The current election campaign holds out no hope. If Mr Modi got off to a flying start at Delhi’s Shriram College of Commerce, he has frittered away the prime mover’s advantage to a thoroughly effete Opposition.
Indeed, he may be a premature burn-out case, putting paid to a steadily rising Sensex, large crowds that he has attracted so far, an Opposition that has only succeeded in elevating him to the status of national saviour and regional parties that are averse to taking risks. A power-sharing arrangement is uncertain.
Schattscheider’s thesis ~ “In politics the most catastrophic force in the world is the power of irrelevance which transmutes one conflict into another and turns all existing alignments inside out” ~ may well ring true in the April-May 2014 elections. At the age of 91, I can only wonder whether I will live long enough to witness the beginning of India’s national reconstruction, post-Election 2014.
A rising tide of resentment against rulers is inevitable. There are 39 million families (maybe 80-120 million voters) in rural and urban India, living in homes with thatched/grass roof; 22.1 per cent of rural households in 2011 had to carry water from sources far away from their homes; 51.9 per cent of the rural population depend on unfiltered water, 28 per cent have no kitchens inside their homes and 45 million households ~ 24 per cent of the of population overall ~ cannot afford less labour-intensive fuel such as LPG and have to make do with crop residue. Women voters have weathered the storm since 1947.
Then there are the minority communities, particularly Muslims, who number 138 million, i.e. about 9 per cent of the country’s total population of whom about 30 million or about a fourth are concentrated in Uttar Pradesh while another 14 million live in Bihar. In contrast, about 4.50 million Muslims populate Gujarat. Muslims would account for a tidy 85-90 million votes.
To that can be added the increasing number of Scheduled Caste graduates (2.31 million) in their 167 million population and a relatively minuscule 3.05 million illiterate population (that includes children below 7), who may account for another 100-105 million votes. Then there are 84.32 million Scheduled Tribes who boast of only 2 million young voters with educational qualifications of high school and above.
They too would account for about 45-50 million votes. Between them, these three subaltern communities alone may account for 230-245 million votes or a third of the total available votes and perhaps 85-90 Lok Sabha seats. Historically, the leadership of these communities has vested in opportunistic leaders who have left these class groups high and dry in the last six decades. This has opened the path for alternative leaders such as Narendra Modi.
The intriguing silence of the regional parties proves that they will yet again forsake their traditional constituencies, many of them subaltern, and opportunistically team up with the winner who may be the Prime Minister if his party crosses the 180-190 Lok Sabha seats-marks. Why give such fissiparous elements the chance to play the role of king-makers when voters are willing to listen to reason and good sense and elect a single party without suffering their circus-like antics that may even lead to Mr Modi’s eclipse. Failure to avail of this opportunity may well turn the clock back to the medieval era as far as the subalterns are concerned.
The Census 2011 data is not available on the Internet. Polemics over reservations apart, the vast majority of these people still work in the fields as marginal farmers and unskilled labourers. Yet a percolation or trickle-down effect from the young brigade is apparent from the resentment over certain public events and the first attempts at redefining their role in polity.
The progressive outlook of AMU’s last Vice-Chancellor had cost him his job, but he earned the respect of students. Muslim clerics are also doing their bit to arouse awareness of the need to vote in the interest of development. In the assembly elections of 2013, the SCs and STs, who dominate a vast swathe of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, voted on an unprecedented scale. If this trend continues, every block of 2 million votes of their 230-245 million votes may determine as many as 115-123 Lok Sabha seats. To this can be added the role of the media and Internet and the improved connectivity in large parts of the country.
Despite the major socio-economic and demographic changes, the campaign for Election 2014 is far from commensurate with the tide of rising expectations; on the contrary, it is utterly oblivious to the consequences of terminal blindness. Every word uttered during this campaign reflects Schattschneider’s prophetic words: “The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent.” Even as the demands of voters are contemporary, the response of the prime ministers in the wings is antediluvian. Our politicians do not realise that their base of power has shifted dramatically and the upper middle crust matters little in Election 2014.
Regretfully, the campaigns are marked by quasi-gutter talk, rebuke, insult, innuendo, even mimicry. Manifestos don’t count. Politician superstars swear by the ‘national interest’. Overall, there is an utter contempt for the voter. There is no national vision, no national pride, and no national and international plan of action. Gujarat is not the ideal development model. Mr Modi is yet to tell voters why they should vote for him.
The economy has all but crashed. The manufacturing sector and exports are languishing. Onions are more expensive than a litre of petrol. The current election campaign holds out no hope. If Mr Modi got off to a flying start at Delhi’s Shriram College of Commerce, he has frittered away the prime mover’s advantage to a thoroughly effete Opposition.
Indeed, he may be a premature burn-out case, putting paid to a steadily rising Sensex, large crowds that he has attracted so far, an Opposition that has only succeeded in elevating him to the status of national saviour and regional parties that are averse to taking risks. A power-sharing arrangement is uncertain.
Schattscheider’s thesis ~ “In politics the most catastrophic force in the world is the power of irrelevance which transmutes one conflict into another and turns all existing alignments inside out” ~ may well ring true in the April-May 2014 elections. At the age of 91, I can only wonder whether I will live long enough to witness the beginning of India’s national reconstruction, post-Election 2014.
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