Editorial

Iran and West Asian tensions

• The recently concluded Geneva meet among G5+1 (G5 + Germany) and Iran has not only brought temporary ease with regard to Iran’s nuclear programme and partial removal of Western sanctions, but it has also more significance to West Asia.

Repercussions on West Asia:

• With U.S withdrawing most of its troops from Afghanistan in 2014, Iran (now being a potentially valuable partner for the US) can help stabilise the country and deter the Taliban. Also Iranian troops had briefly assisted the U.S. in 2001.
• With respect to Syria, Iran can play a major role in bringing a settlement in Syria, as Shia President, Bashar al Assad’s adamant stand has prevented a settlement and caused over thousands of deaths in a terrible civil war, over which Western public opinion is strongly opposed to military intervention.
• With regard to Iraq, Iran already has considerable influence over PM Nouri al Maliki, where the illegal 2003 U.S-led invasion provided space for revived Sunni-Shia tensions which still cause thousands of deaths every year. Furthermore, Kurdish and even Sunni political groups have for some time now drawn on Iranian advice in forming Iraqi provincial coalition governments and resolving disputes.

Countries which were against the Geneva deal:

• However, the Geneva deal has shocked most West Asian leaders. Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran as its greatest rival, has openly expressed its displeasure, but West Asian Arab countries made no attempt to participate at Geneva. Since 2008, proposals by Bahrain, Iran and the former Arab League head Amr Moussa for regional security talks have met a dead-end.
• The standard responses to perceived security threats, such as using oil wealth to buy more weapons, even possibly including a nuclear umbrella, will not help the Arab leaders, because Iran is already cooperating with the G6, and increased weapons purchases would worsen a destabilising arms race.
• As for Israel, which shares many of the Arab countries’ interests, PM Benjamin Netanyahu has cautioned that he would do ‘anything necessary’ to defend his country, and continues to approve settlements in the occupied territories.
• But Mr. Rouhani has unquestionable democratic legitimacy, and even if justice for the Palestinians and democratic reforms in West Asia seem remote at present, it may not be long before those two issues are rightly at the top of the agenda again.