Birth of Telangana is telling
Source: By Seema Mustafa: The Free Press Journal
The Lok Sabha gave several insights into the political alignments that are emerging, and can be expected, from the decision to introduce and pass the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill. The most dramatic of it all was, perhaps, the coming together of the BJP and the Congress to ensure that the Bill was passed, with a meeting between Union Ministers Sushil Kumar Shinde and Jairam Ramesh with BJP leaders LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley clearing the decks as it were.
Ugly behaviour in Parliament, loud protests outsie marked the days, as all the regional players descended on Delhi for sit- ins, meetings and demonstrations to pressure the national political parties to play it their way. So there was the Congress chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, Kiran Reddy, who sat on dharna in Delhi against the Bill, met top leaders and let it be known that he would resign if the Bill was passed. ' Sources close to him' continue to spread the rumour that he will leave to float his own party.
The Telugu Desam, which had reached an understanding with the BJP’s Narendra Modi, took a strong position against the bifurcation of the state, was left in the lurch with the BJP’s decision to support the Congress on Telangana. As a result, his political stock in the state has dropped, and from a winning alliance, Chandrababu Naidu is now staring a reduced presence in Parliament in the face. He is currently without an ally, as he cannot support the BJP because it supported the Bill.
The SR Congress Party has gained tremendously, as Jagan Reddy played his cards well, and while protesting strongly against the Bill, let it be known that he would support anyone from the centre who opposed Telangana. His political fortunes have soared and he is currently seen as the one most likely to benefit from the anti- Telangana sentiment in the rest of the erstwhile state. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi is expected to do extremely well in Telangana, with Chandrashekhar Rao back in business.
He is already playing hard to get, touching the feet of Sushma Swaraj in Parliament, parleying with the Congress, but refusing to commit himself to any alliance. It is clear that he is seeing himself in the post of Chief Minister and will ally with the Congress only if it agrees to this. Of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana, both the Congress and the TRS hope to win the majority.
So why did the BJP, that could have been a player in the Seemandhra region, virtually factor itself out of the race by agreeing to support the Bill? With this, it can gain little more than a toehold in Telangana, if that, while it loses a great deal in Seemandhra as a result. Modi had reached an understanding with the TDP, but it was being widely speculated that this could be discarded for an alliance with the SR Congress. Now neither can go along with the BJP without seriously damaging their own electoral prospects.
So why? The only explanation coming out of certain BJP quarters is that by reaching this understanding, Advani and Sushma Swaraj have effectively rendered a blow to Modi's efforts to cement a productive alliance in Andhra Pradesh. And instead of sticking to its earlier stand that it would not pass the Bill if the chaos continued ---- and the chaos had continued but was ignored this time---- the BJP proactively supported the legislation that effectively ended its electoral plans for Andhra Pradesh.
It is no secret that Advani is not on the same page as Modi, and despite the uneasy truce, knows that he could get a chance at the prime ministerial post if the BJP numbers were reduced to a point where a government would become impossible without sufficient allies. And given the regional parties’ reluctance to openly go with Modi, Advani could then emerge as the consensus for all. Not an unlikely scenario.
The Congress Party, of course, has a lot to answer for. Or rather, its President Sonia Gandhi and her advisors have a great deal to explain, the first point being why they embarked on a journey that is going to give the bifurcated state of Andhra Pradesh to the regional parties almost entirely.
AP was a strong state for the Congress party, with its 42 seats, and if the issue of Telangana was indeed seen as a necessity by the party bosses, it could have dealt with this in a sober, calibrated fashion over the ten years it was ruling, so that the losses could have been minimised, and all sides kept reasonably happy. This rush to push through a controversial legislation at the end of the term, and just weeks before the Lok Sabha elections, was bound to generate the reactions we have seen over the last days; and also guaranteed to ensure that the Congress would not be able to retrieve the situation in Seemandhra. It can be said without exaggeration that the Congress can consider itself redundant in this region, with or without Kiran Reddy's resignation.
In a state where the Nehru- Gandhi dynasty was more accepted than in others, Sonia Gandhi and her son scion Rahul Gandhi will not be able to campaign for these elections in the Seemandhra region. Nor will for that matter, any of the national party leaders. Kiran Reddy too will face hostile crowds unless he resigns from the Congress Party, despite the supposed package that is being prepared for the state.
The Congress, thus, is fast disappearing from the south of India that had always been its bastion. It is in a come- and- go situation in Karnataka, decimated in Tamil Nadu, and now decimated in the non- Telangana part of Andhra Pradesh. It remains in power in Kerala, but only just, and more so because the Left Front is not gathering more steam.
The Lok Sabha gave several insights into the political alignments that are emerging, and can be expected, from the decision to introduce and pass the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill. The most dramatic of it all was, perhaps, the coming together of the BJP and the Congress to ensure that the Bill was passed, with a meeting between Union Ministers Sushil Kumar Shinde and Jairam Ramesh with BJP leaders LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley clearing the decks as it were.
Ugly behaviour in Parliament, loud protests outsie marked the days, as all the regional players descended on Delhi for sit- ins, meetings and demonstrations to pressure the national political parties to play it their way. So there was the Congress chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, Kiran Reddy, who sat on dharna in Delhi against the Bill, met top leaders and let it be known that he would resign if the Bill was passed. ' Sources close to him' continue to spread the rumour that he will leave to float his own party.
The Telugu Desam, which had reached an understanding with the BJP’s Narendra Modi, took a strong position against the bifurcation of the state, was left in the lurch with the BJP’s decision to support the Congress on Telangana. As a result, his political stock in the state has dropped, and from a winning alliance, Chandrababu Naidu is now staring a reduced presence in Parliament in the face. He is currently without an ally, as he cannot support the BJP because it supported the Bill.
The SR Congress Party has gained tremendously, as Jagan Reddy played his cards well, and while protesting strongly against the Bill, let it be known that he would support anyone from the centre who opposed Telangana. His political fortunes have soared and he is currently seen as the one most likely to benefit from the anti- Telangana sentiment in the rest of the erstwhile state. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi is expected to do extremely well in Telangana, with Chandrashekhar Rao back in business.
He is already playing hard to get, touching the feet of Sushma Swaraj in Parliament, parleying with the Congress, but refusing to commit himself to any alliance. It is clear that he is seeing himself in the post of Chief Minister and will ally with the Congress only if it agrees to this. Of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana, both the Congress and the TRS hope to win the majority.
So why did the BJP, that could have been a player in the Seemandhra region, virtually factor itself out of the race by agreeing to support the Bill? With this, it can gain little more than a toehold in Telangana, if that, while it loses a great deal in Seemandhra as a result. Modi had reached an understanding with the TDP, but it was being widely speculated that this could be discarded for an alliance with the SR Congress. Now neither can go along with the BJP without seriously damaging their own electoral prospects.
So why? The only explanation coming out of certain BJP quarters is that by reaching this understanding, Advani and Sushma Swaraj have effectively rendered a blow to Modi's efforts to cement a productive alliance in Andhra Pradesh. And instead of sticking to its earlier stand that it would not pass the Bill if the chaos continued ---- and the chaos had continued but was ignored this time---- the BJP proactively supported the legislation that effectively ended its electoral plans for Andhra Pradesh.
It is no secret that Advani is not on the same page as Modi, and despite the uneasy truce, knows that he could get a chance at the prime ministerial post if the BJP numbers were reduced to a point where a government would become impossible without sufficient allies. And given the regional parties’ reluctance to openly go with Modi, Advani could then emerge as the consensus for all. Not an unlikely scenario.
The Congress Party, of course, has a lot to answer for. Or rather, its President Sonia Gandhi and her advisors have a great deal to explain, the first point being why they embarked on a journey that is going to give the bifurcated state of Andhra Pradesh to the regional parties almost entirely.
AP was a strong state for the Congress party, with its 42 seats, and if the issue of Telangana was indeed seen as a necessity by the party bosses, it could have dealt with this in a sober, calibrated fashion over the ten years it was ruling, so that the losses could have been minimised, and all sides kept reasonably happy. This rush to push through a controversial legislation at the end of the term, and just weeks before the Lok Sabha elections, was bound to generate the reactions we have seen over the last days; and also guaranteed to ensure that the Congress would not be able to retrieve the situation in Seemandhra. It can be said without exaggeration that the Congress can consider itself redundant in this region, with or without Kiran Reddy's resignation.
In a state where the Nehru- Gandhi dynasty was more accepted than in others, Sonia Gandhi and her son scion Rahul Gandhi will not be able to campaign for these elections in the Seemandhra region. Nor will for that matter, any of the national party leaders. Kiran Reddy too will face hostile crowds unless he resigns from the Congress Party, despite the supposed package that is being prepared for the state.
The Congress, thus, is fast disappearing from the south of India that had always been its bastion. It is in a come- and- go situation in Karnataka, decimated in Tamil Nadu, and now decimated in the non- Telangana part of Andhra Pradesh. It remains in power in Kerala, but only just, and more so because the Left Front is not gathering more steam.
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