Pakistan's New Army Doctrine

WORDS USED IN THE ARTICLE

MFN status: A level of status given to one country by another and enforced by the World Trade Organization. A country grants this clause to another nation if it is interested in increasing trade with that country. Countries achieving most favored nation status are given specific trade advantages such as reduced tariffs on imported goods. In a way it can be said as an “open-trade” policy.

Special consideration is given to countries that are classified as "developing" by the World Trade Organization.

INTRODUCTION
Pakistan from its time of formation is directly or indirectly controlled by its Army. Any foreign policy of Pakistan deeply resembles the interests of the country’s armies that it deems fit. So, it is wise to look into the army doctrine of Pakistan to understand & solve problems with Pakistan. Recently, it rolled another document of its doctrine.

What the new doctrine has to say?

⇒ This Doctrine calls itself as “army’s mother document” & “the fountainhead for all subordinate doctrines.

⇒ This doctrine belongs to the December 2011 & was preparation for the same was started in 2008. It took into consideration the Kargil War of 1999 & war like condition that followed the Indian Parliament Attack.

⇒ Identified growing Indian military power as disturbing to the equilibrium of the region (talks nothing about increasing Chinese military power)

⇒ Main issues according to them: i) Issue of Kashmir ii) violation of treaty arrangements on sharing of natural resources iii) organized and deliberate support by external powers to militant organizations

⇒ Didn’t name any country as a threat.

⇒ But accuses India of creating problems over the Indus water & backing terrorism.

⇒ It also took note of the heavy modernization of army that India took after 2001 Parliamentary attacks. But sees that both countries have expanded militarily & its nuclear weapon capabilities.

⇒ This De-Facto parity between India & Pakistan has lead to the likelihood of conventional war.

⇒ This deterrence used by both countries is disturbing & depleting at the same tie the peaceful diplomacy & dialogue. It is rapidly getting replaced with coercion & violence.

⇒ It states that Pakistan will use nuclear weapons only as the last resort, given its scale & scope of destruction. Nuclear power of both countries is not a military advantage but acts only as to maintain status quo.

⇒ It says that war is not going to being any advantage but integration between conventional & nuclear forces may stop open-ended arms race.

⇒ It suggests to at least creating credible minimum deterrence, based on a triad (land, sea & air) & an assured second-strike capability (if India strikes first).

VIEWS OF EXPERTS

⇒ What the Doctrine is saying is already known.

⇒ Pakistan army sees Indian military modernization as a threat & thinks that nuclear capability of Pakistan will insulate them from the use of high risk methods like supporting Jihadi Terrorism.

⇒ Indian military is of the view that Pakistan army is worried because it is not able to organize offensive or defensive responses against Indian military. They always try to threaten by using nuclear weapon only.

⇒ This document according to Indian experts signals India that Pakistan is going to react with disproportionate force to any limited Indian military operations.

WAR GAMES & THE COLD START DOCTRINE

⇒ Pakistan has adopted WAR GAMES (new concept of war fighting. Also called Azm-e-Nau exercises) for tackling India’s cold start doctrine.) It seeks to improve troops' mobilization time and to put up a joint Army, Navy and Air Force response to any conventional threat.

⇒ Indian military has publically denied the existence of cold start doctrine.

⇒ The Cold Start doctrine is intended to allow India's conventional forces to perform holding swift and unexpected attacks in a manner before international pressure could come to bear on India and before the Pakistani military could react i.e. in under 72 hours.

⇒ Pak military officials said under the new concept, in case of war, the Pakistan Army could mobilize in far less time as compared to India.

ARMY DOCTORINE OF JANUARY 2013

⇒ It recognized homegrown militancy as the biggest threat to national security.

⇒ Militants attack on government installations is posing a real threat to Pakistan’s security.

⇒ For years, Pakistan Army (PA) considered India as the biggest threat. But not due to growing extremism within their country PA has stated that more than India it is the internal threat which requires more attention.

⇒ Sub-conventional threat is a reality faced by their country. But it also underlines the importance of conventional threat.

⇒ PA considers unidentified militant groups as the biggest threat & has located their position across the Durand Line in Afghanistan.

⇒ PA is of the view that USA’s Abbottabad raid in May 2011 was possible because of lack of threat perception from western borders & increased concentration on the eastern frontiers (India).

⇒ PA thinks that it alone can’t handle the things. & hence asked elicit public support against violent extremism. The army is likely to make public its new doctrine.

Most Favored Nation (MFN) STATUS

⇒ India has already given MFN status to Pakistan in 1996.

⇒ Till now Pakistan has not been able to give MFN status to India.

⇒ But recently, while taking loan from International Monetary Fund (IMF), it has given in writing to IMF that it will grant MFN status to India as soon as possible.

⇒ The real thing is that they want to give India the MFN status but the delivery time of it is in question.

⇒ USA & Pakistan’s Chamber of Commerce & Industry are also trying to pressurize Pakistan to give MFN status to India.

⇒ Major concern for Pakistan to grant MFN status to India is about its domestic agriculture and textile sectors which may not able to survive Indian industries. It may wipe out local industry in Pakistan.

⇒ But recent trends show positive change & favors liberal trade and visa regime.

⇒ Pakistan is going to grant MFN status also as a confidence building measures.

⇒ Last year Pakistan allowed 5000 items to be traded via positive lists (items that you can trade with Pakistan) & has a negative list (Items that you can’t trade with Pakistan) of 1206 items.

WHAT ABOUT THE DOMESTIC TERRIORISM IN PAKISTAN?

⇒ Domestic terrorism in Pakistan is the by-product of its own policies.

⇒ Pakistan to protect its interest in Afghanistan & Kashmir supported the militant groups from 1970’s.

⇒ But these groups in recent times have grown a lot & now are not even close to what their objective is. They are not working according to the Pakistan’s interest. They want their own rule in the areas of influence & hence are deliberately trying to destroy government apparatus by attacking government installations.

⇒ But there is confusion among the Pakistani civilians who consider many of the members of these militant groups as “Kashmiri Group” i.e. the people fighting for Kashmir independence. But recent local attacks have turned their position against these militants though not completely.

⇒ Religion’s two faces: Religion is used for the instigation of terrorism by two sets of actors in Pakistan.

⇒ First, there are sectarian groups belonging to the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam that are active in terrorist activities which are mostly but not exclusively directed against the people from the opposite sect. The Sunni militants want Pakistan t be a Sunni state & same goes with Shia militants. With the abundant weapons, black money & external influence that were available thanks to Afghan jihad, the sectarian conflict soon mutated into a gory blood feud between the two communities. The political objectives of the various groups seemed to get lost along the way, but the violence continued and still continues in the form of Sectarian violence.

⇒ Second, The second set of actors are jihadi groups that were considered by the Government of Pakistan up to 2001 as strategic tools to be used in Afghanistan and Kashmir, some of whom have now turned against the government and become involved in terrorist activities inside the country leading to terrorism based on nationalism.

⇒ Domestic militants have following targets:
1. To destabilize state’s security apparatus so that people should look towards the militants for protection.
2. To force the government not to interfere in militant-controlled areas so that they can continue their activities unhindered.
3. To force the government to bring a new system according to the militants agenda.

CONCLUSION
Pakistan’s army sees India no more as a real & targeted threat. It has shifted its focus to domestic violence & terrorism. It is the real option for India to try & negotiate problems with Pakistan & make Pakistan friendly by way of offering help to them to solve domestic issues.