Bangladesh elections: Is another coup imminent?

Bangladesh, a country located in Indian sub-continent recently underwent parliamentary elections which should have been a smooth democratic process. Rather, it was marred with boycott, violent protest and a very low voter turnout.

 

The history of Bangladesh or elsewhere in this world has innumerable instances that whenever a nation faced the crisis of democratic formation, bloody or non-bloody army coups were staged to replace the democratically elected governments. In this article, we will explore the election tangle in Bangladesh and assess the political situation of the country. We will also focus on Indian response to the crisis in its own backyard. Do all the circumstances existing in Bangladesh indicate that there is a possibility of another army coup in the nation which is ridden with several army coups since it won freedom from Pakistan in 1971? Let’s find the answer in the following article.

Current Story
Bangladesh parliamentary elections were held on 5 January 2014 and as expected the ruling Awami League emerged as the winner with 230 seats. As a matter of fact, the contest took place at only 147 seats out of 300 in the parliament due to the election boycott called by the main opposition party, the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and the alliance of 18 parties it led.

 

Moreover, the voter turnout was a mere 20 percent, the lowest in the history of Bangladesh parliamentary elections. It is in sharp contrast to 70 percent voter turnout in 2008.

 

Why the election boycott?

i) Immediate reason

BNP led alliance demanded that Awami league led by the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should dissolve the parliament after completing its full five year term and hand over the to an interim government or a caretaker government as prescribed in the Constitution (Thirteenth Amendment) Act 1996.

 

This caretaker government was to co-ordinate with the election commission to oversee and organize the general election and to transfer power to a newly elected government post election results. However, the demand was refused by Sheikh Hasina. Instead, she proposed an all party interim election cabinet government which would include opposition parties till the election, refused by BNP.

 

ii) Main reason
The Awami league government set up a war crime tribunal to hold trials for those accused of genocide in 1971 Bangladesh liberation war. It convicted seven leaders from Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamic political party in Bangladesh and two leaders from BNP. They were awarded death sentences. This factor also contributed mainly in election boycott.

 

History of Coups in Bangladesh
The civil-military relations in Bangladesh have always been unstable. Bangladesh as a nation has been marred by innumerable military coups in the past with the first military coup taking place in August 1975 in which the founding leader of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman was assassinated. Since then more than 20 coups have taken place in the nation in which Major General  Ziaur Rahman and General  Ershad figured prominently. Ziaur Rahman is the late husband of BNP leader Khaleda Zia. He got assassinated in 1981 in the 21st coup while the last military ruler of Bangladesh, General  Ershad was removed from his post through a pro-democracy movement in 1990.

 

India’s stance
USA and European Union found that Bangladesh polls were not credible and desired for fresh elections. In fact, USA wanted India to intervene in the matter but the latter stated that the elections were the internal and constitutional process of Bangladesh. Political analysts opine that India is covertly supporting Awami league because it doesn’t want BNP led by Khaleda Zia to come back to power, due to her closeness to extremist groups.

 

An Overview
A smooth transition of power through a proper electoral process is always a prerequisite for proper functioning of a stable democracy; which is not the case with Bangladesh. It has a history of military coups taking place whenever the nation struggled for political stability.

Unfortunately, the two major political parties of Bangladesh, Awami league and BNP appear to be ignorant of this fact. What is happening in Bangladesh is detrimental for it both politically and economically at world stage. It can face boycott from the major democratic nations who haven’t approved of the election process. It can create political vacuum within the nation which will inevitably lead to army rule. To avoid this, the major political parties should come together as united force for the smooth functioning of the nation.

India is required to play a major role here. It has to maintain a balance in its attitude while supporting Sheikh Hasina’s government and at the same time not to be perceived as the supporter of an unpopular election. It will encourage terrorism and insurgency in Bangladesh which in turn will adversely affect India.