ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

India’s foreign policy is often accused of lacking realism and pragmatism in the era where it is regularly confronted by China who is following the policy of realism to develop friendly relationship with all its neighbor and has been successful to some extent in developing excellent relationship with all India’s neighbors through its policy of string of pearls and cheque diplomacy.

In this context, the relatively successful implementation of India’s look east policy is worth mentioning. India has been generous in dealing with its comparatively small neighbors and has become realistic in handling its diplomacy. From the recent controversy marred elections in Maldives to Nepal and Bangladesh, India has made it well-known that they are ready to do work with any political party that comes to power. This a drastic change from its earlier policy of taking moral high ground and dealing with only democratically elected governments which were often viewed as sanctimonious by others.

In contemporary times India’s relationships with most of its neighbors are bedeviled by its lack of any coherent vision making Indian foreign policy as reactions to individual events and not based on any principles. Though Manmohan Singh recently provided some clues to basic principles on which India’s south block base its decision on but the same has been derided by intelligentsia as mere rhetoric. India’s relationship with its neighbors is analyzed below:-

1) Afghanistan: – One of the biggest investor in Afghanistan, India has pumped in more than 2 billion $ and is also building key infrastructure projects including its parliament. India has been trying to build key institutions in Afghanistan and is also training its army to help the later in checking the rise of Taliban. It dramatically increased its efforts after Obama prematurely announced USA troop’s withdrawal in 2014.

While Afghanistan considers India as its close friend, it considers Pakistan as its brother and is precariously trying to maintain good relationship with both of them. With the imminent withdrawal of USA forces, India would have to face real challenge in keeping Afghanistan secure and in turn peace at her own border.

2) Pakistan: – India’s relationship with Pakistan was supposed to hit new highs when for the first time a democratically elected government passed baton to other. With a new Prime Minister at helm, hopes were high but nothing good happened. While Nawaz Sharif is known for his pro India views, there were marked increase in ceasefire violations by Pakistan along with beheading of Indian soldier with each event pointing to the string role Army plays in Pakistan decision-making. Thus, it is expected that the going forward, India’s position would be to maintain status-quo while going through back channel diplomacy to work out agreements between the two nations starting with more people to people contact and the pending issue of granting MFN (Most favored nation) by Pakistan to India.

3) Sri-Lanka: – India has never faced such strong negative scenario in Sri-Lanka. While on one hand, Sinhalese government of Mahinda Rajapaksa is slowly using its 2/3rd majority to amend the constitution in order to dilute the provisions of 13th amendment which provides autonomy to tamilian dominated north srilanka. Further damage was done when Indian PM instead of going to CHOGM meet in Colombo and using the occasion to put pressure on Sri-Lanka PM of divulging more powers to tamil-lankans and constituting an independent Truth and Reconciliation tribunal to account for war crimes bowed to the pressure of regional political parties and skipped the meet.

China has been able to foray deeply into Sri-lanka due to such decisions of India and is already constructing Hambantota port & power equipments apart from contracts to supply defence equipments to Sri-Lankan Army. Thus, India would have to muster all its might to woo its neighbor and for that should actively encourage India Inc. to invest in sri-lankan economy.

4) Bangladesh:- India have failed to make much progress with Bangladesh even though the present regime of Awami League is considered pro India having done a lot to stop Anti-India terror camps in its territory. Indian government heckled by regional party Trinamool Congress have failed to ink key agreements like Teesta water treaty and Land boundary agreement which could have bound India & Bangladesh into strategic ties. Due to this, Bangladesh could not sign an agreement with India to use its territory to link with India with its North-East states. This could prove to be a strategic faux-pas in coming years and would choke India’s north east from realizing its vast potential. Again we can see that the principle elaborated by Dr. Manmohan Singh that India’s foreign policy should focus on helping India’s grow economically and integrate with world economies remain mere rhetoric.

5) Myanmar: – Myanmar ruled by military government since last 4 decades have mixed relationship with India. Myanmar have vast amount of non-renewable sources of energy which India failed to use due to its policy of not dealing with military government. The result was that China and its companies made significant inroads in its economy which could pester India in long term as the boundary shared by both countries is often used by anti-India camps to spread terror in India through Myanmar.

In recent times, Indian foreign policy showing maturity have started dealing with Military government while also backing nascent democratic movement being led by Indian educated Aung San Sui Kyi. As a result of this both the governments are mutually executing a project named Kaladan Multi Model Transport project which could provide India an alternative route to its north-east states apart from the chicken neck. Also, the trade between both the countries is growing at a good pace and has recently crossed 2 Billion US$. Thein Sein lead military government could be further prodded by Indian government to successfully allow democratic elections which could further provide impetus to strategic relationship between both the countries.

6) Bhutan: – Bhutan King was chief guest at last year republic day parade signifying the close relationship both countries have. Bhutan’s have recently transformed its governing system from monarchy to democracy and is constantly nudged by India to develop further reforms. Recently both countries have signed agreement to develop Bhutan hydroelectric power potential in order to export the surplus to energy deficient India’s north-east states which could prove to be win-win for both the countries. Also, Bhutan’s strategic location near chicken neck corridor makes it strategically important for India to maintain close relationship with.

7) Nepal: – India and Nepal always have a factitious relationship due to the flexing of economic & military muscle by China. The transition going on in Nepal from monarchy to democracy is littered with problems and this is creating problem for Indian diplomacy to develop a sound strategy to push forward Indian interests. Recently the elections to elect 2nd constitution assembly has been completed successfully with CPM (UML) and Nepali Congress gaining majority of the required seats in turn pushing UCPM (M) to 3rd position. This is good news for India as Maoist was often seen as supporting naxalism in India through the long porous border both country share.

Nepal is strategically important for India as it acts as a buffer between India & China. Also, being upper riparian states for some rivers, India must keep Nepal in good books and see that its transition to democracy is successful.

8) China: – Well let’s talk about elephant in the room. China, the only country with which India have fought an unsuccessful war is often portrayed as its competitor, an observation which given a modicum of common sense seems unjustified. China is well on its way to become a new world super power and India might have to satisfy itself with only being a regional economic power. In that case, it would be best if India could develop a relationship with India which could help the latter to take advantages of China’s growing might in International diplomacy such as India candidature for permanent seat at security council needs china’s approval to the controversial issue of Aksai-Chin and China’s claim of Arunachal Pradesh being its territory should be sorted out with diplomatic channels. Both the countries could join hand to usher a new era in world politics but for that to happen, they would have to sort out their differences and join hands.

As Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh once said that we can choose our friends but not neighbors, India would have to live in a increasingly neighborhood where warmongering, pseudo-diplomacy would be call of the day and if India would have to course its chart through this very territory only if it has to bring prosperity to multitude of its poor and destitute people.