China & Pakistan are is now on track to seal the deal for two civil nuclear power plants in Pakistan. Though it has been in the news for a long time, delayed due to international outcry over it, it has once again gained prominence as it has moved forward towards completion. It came into public domain early this year in April when there were talks of additional reactors in Karachi.
ABOUT THE DEAL
This deal constitutes the sale of the Chinas’ indigenous 1100 MW nuclear reactor series named ACP 1000. They will be located off Karachi (named as KANNUP 2 & 3) & are valued at about $9.6 billion.
- Initial deal was signed on Feb. 18, 2013 between PAEC Chairman Ansar Parvez and Sun Qin, CNNC chairman.
- Companies Involved : From China: - State run China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) ; From Pakistan: - Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
- To be located near Karachi at Paradise Point, 25 miles west of the Pakistani Capital.
- First reactor will be delivered in 70 to 80 months & the second will come 10 months later.
- China will provide 82% of the capital required as loan on soft terms.
PAKISTAN’S ENERGY CRISIS
- Ground realties indicates that Pakistan is severely energy starved. There are planned outages of 10 to 12 hours a day, due to about 5000 MW gap between supply and demand.
- At present, about 3.6 % (725 megawatts) of the total electricity generated in Pakistan (20,138 MW) comes from nuclear power.
The World Bank has committed $700 million for the $6 billion Dasu hydroelectric power project in Pakistan, while Islamabad and Washington recently finalized a plan to cooperate on a major hydroelectric project in Pakistan administered Kashmir. These projects will help Pakistan overcome its energy crisis without raising concerns about unsafeguarded nuclear facilities. The U.S. should focus on these types of energy projects and steer Pakistan away from the civil nuclear option.
GLOBAL CONCERN
China from starting has been a staunch supporter of Pakistan’s Nuclear Profile which has created a cause of concern for India and global community for four reasons:
1. Pakistan has a track record as a proliferator and the past incident of "A.Q. Khan Ring" (Pakistan’s infamous nuclear scientist ) where they bought & sold nuclear plans & weapons to Libya, Iran and North Korea secretly. Pakistan was described as “Nuclear Wal-Mart” in this case. It was shut down during the early 2000.
2. Pakistan is also a country that is regarded as "epicentre of terrorism". Major concern for India & Global community remains that Pakistan is increasingly dealing in nuclear material particularly fissile material but it doesn’t have a separation between civil & military program.
3. Pakistan is also seen as playing the role of spoiler in the FMCT (Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty) negotiation which is going on in Geneva. All this adds to the global concern about where is China going with Pakistan.
4. Chashma, in Pakistan Punjab, has Chashma 1 & Chashma 2 reactors(300 MW each completed in 2000) . Now there is a talk of Chasma 3 & 4 (340 MW each to be completed by 2016) between Pakistan and Chian. Together with proposed KANNUP i.e. Karachi 2 & 3, that will give Pakistan a nuclear profile which is substantial.
IS THE POSITION OF PAKISTAN SAME AS INDIA IN 2008 ?
India was in the same kind of position on the world platform when India signed nuclear deal with USA in 2008 leading to 123 agreement. World was divided on this question that whether India should be allowed into Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). But US had requested NSG to add India into the group & be given “Exceptional Status” as India had not signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
India & Pakistan had not signed NPT ; India & Pakistan both have nuclear weapons, then why India was given status so easily? : The reason behind it can be expressed in the words of USA Congressman Gary Ackerman. He said, “If Pakistan wants to be treated like India then let it have a non-proliferation record like India for the last 30 plus years.”
Concern expressed in NSG & India is that China is acting in a manner that would be defiant of NSG norms.
CHINA’S EXPLANATION TOWARDS THIS DEAL
Beijing is taking recourse to what they call as “Grandfathering Clause” saying that they had entered into deal with Pakistan to provide nuclear reactors named as Sino-Pak nuclear cooperation agreement & the deal was signed in 2004 way before China had joined NSG. So NSG norms can’t work on this deal.
REAL SITUATION:
China is viewing this deal as a counter part for India- US deal to back up it as China-Pakistan Deal. It is very clear that Beijing is acting in way which is not according to prevailing norms in NSG.
Why India should be worried ?
The real question is that whether India should be worried about this China-Pakistan deal. It is after all a civil nuclear deal. Even India for that matter is getting help for building nuclear reactors from many countries like USA & France under civil nuclear agreements like the help from Russia to build reactor in Kudankulam (Tamil Nadu).
India’s reasons to worry:-
1. China had given support to Pakistan’s nuclear program in an unprecedented manner meaning that China had provided Pakistan with a nuclear weapon which goes back to late May 1990 which has been described as the time when Pakistan acquired a covert nuclear weapon capability.
2. China is arming Pakistan in a way which is arming India’s neighbor with WMD (weapons of mass destruction) capability which would place India at a very great disadvantage.
3. Our experiences with Pakistan say us that whenever Pakistan had help of any sort it stepped up its terrorism like the one in 1990. Other reasons existed at that time like internal disturbance in J&K & breakdown of Soviet Union. But the major reason was terror was being used as a strategy against India which caused many proxy wars & they used “Nuclear Weapon” as a firewall. [India’s PM of that time had asked for an explanation to China about this irresponsible behavior which was straight away rejected by China which is the major hurdle for Indian diplomacy to work].
IS CHINA ALSO WORRIED ABOUT TERRORISM ?
Indeed, China is also worried about terrorism especially in its western parts i.e. in Xinxiang province which borders Afghanistan & Pakistan. They are especially worried about terrorist which are trained in extremist camps of Pakistan. Then why China is arming Pakistan? The reason behind is that Pakistan follows a strict policy of not allowing any activity of terrorism that is directed against China on Pakistani Soil. Pakistan thinks that they can maintain this difference while supporting some & eliminate others which have not met any success so far.
It is widely accepted that there is internal disturbance in Pakistan but major cause is instability in the South Asia.
NSG NORM THAT IS IN NEWS
NSG guidelines make it mandatory for supplier nations to sell nuclear fuel and technology to only those countries which have their entire program under IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards except for five declared nuclear weapons power. NSG guidelines also states not to export equipment and goods that could be used to develop or build nuclear arms programs to any state that is not a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The only exception that the NSG has granted is to India under the 2008 nuclear deal.
NPT RULES THAT IS IN NEWS : The Non-Proliferation Treaty makes it mandatory for all its members, barring the give nuclear weapon states, to ensure their full program is under IAEA safeguards.
EXPECTATION FROM CHINA
Instead of just breaking NSG norms China should act as a responsible power. It should convince India & global community about the program’s safety & should impose strict norms on Pakistan while dealing with this critical issue because it is very sure that Pakistan can’t afford economically these new nuclear reactors. China is providing them as a “strategic gift” for it to realize the dream of Super Power.
FACTS ABOUT CHASHMA FACILITY
China was allowed to sell several reactors to Pakistan’s Chashma facility, including two reactors after it joined the NSG in 2004 after Beijing claims the Chashma reactors were permitted under an agreement reached prior to that date.
5 ACTS OF FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN PAKISTAN & CHINA THAT SPELT
TROUBLE FOR INDIA THIS YEAR
Sr. No.
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Month & Year
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Description
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1.
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October 2013
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China plans to sell two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan
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2.
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September 2013
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In Islamabad’s Rose and Jasmine Garden, Beijing spent 3 billion rupees to build the Pakistan-China Friendship Center
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3.
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July 2013
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Pakistan and China announce to sign an operational agreement for handing over control of Gwadar Port to the latter within a month. China is expected to use this port as a refueling and rest stop for its naval forces.
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4.
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June 2013
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Huawei Technologies plans to install a fiber-optic cable of more than 500 miles, connecting China with Pakistan. The two-year project, estimated to cost $44 million, will reduce Pakistan's reliance on undersea cables to provide Internet service.
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5.
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May 2013
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The EXIM Bank of China signed an agreement with the government of Pakistan to provide $448 million for the strategically important 969MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project
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BIGGER EFFECTS & BIGGER PICTURE OF THIS DEAL
1. China will project itself as “source of financial stability” & suggest Yuan as a replacement for dollar.
2. Russia will offer an anti-aircraft system and another reactor to Iran.
3. Iran will show willingness to reach deal for elimination of western sanctions but will hold its position to never give up its nuclear enrichment program (a key Israeli demand). Russia will further push USA over this issue stating that Iran has the right to enrichment.
4. The Syrian opposition will lose their ground as their main patron i.e. USA has lost position in world order & Assad will continue to rule.
5. Saudi Arabia after many talks on UN Security Council Seat will emphasize that current UN Security Council is not able to function & perform its duties effectively over the issue of use of chemical weapons in Syria.
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
Post 2014 South Asian region is going to be far more turbulent (this is also the time when US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan). Nuclear Stability Index in the region is moving to instability largely due to Pakistan & its military.
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