Crisis in South Sudan and its international implications

• Though South Sudan became independent from the Republic of the Sudan in 2011, the future of the new nation was always uncertain. The conflict now raging in the world’s youngest state has serious regional and international implications
• Just as Eritrea, which obtained its independence from Ethiopia in 1991 but has been deeply troubled ever since, this current conflict is about ‘poor political leadership’ within a country that is still in need of a massive state-building exercise.
• The violence, fighting and displacement that broke out on 15 December, 2013 was not a deliberate coup, but the result of deteriorating relations between the President, Salva Kiir, and his ex-Vice President, Riek Machar. Mr. Kiir has become increasingly authoritarian over the past 18 months when the president tried to take fuller control of the republican guard, this developed into a standoff that sparked what in effect became an accidental coup.
• Until this new crisis erupted, international engagement was focused on the border issues with Sudan and encouraging Mr. Kiir to reconcile with his former enemy, President al-Bashir of Sudan.
• There is also an ethnic dimension playing out between Nuer and Dinka- the president is a Dinka, while Mr. Machar represents the Nuer. This is nothing new for South Sudan, as inter-ethnic tensions have been a feature of the political landscape here long before independence but the discovery of three mass graves by the UN in recent days signal how quickly this crisis has deepened.
• Mr. Kiir has deployed his army to fight supporters of Machar. Thousands have been killed and tens of thousands internally displaced by this fighting. A major crisis is looming and humanitarian access is now the most immediate international preoccupation.
• Following which the UN had announced it is doubling its forces on the ground, and the leaders of Kenya and Ethiopia have also visited South Sudan’s capital, Juba to try to halt the fighting. The crisis has already internationalised with Ugandan troop intervention.
• What is most depressing for South Sudan is that whether Mr. Kiir succeeds militarily over Mr. Machar or there is a negotiated compromise, the country is likely to become more autocratic.An elite power struggle within the tiny leadership looks to be drawing the whole country into a full civil war that is rapidly developing ethnic dimensions.